Senior Business Modelling Analyst

Our client is an established Oil trading company, with physical assets across Europe. They actively source, refine, market and trade Crude Oil and Oil products, and associated financial derivatives.

We are seeking a highly analytical and commercially minded professional to support the financial and strategic decision-making processes across the Group. The successful candidate will play a critical role in delivering robust financial and quantitative analysis, supporting management reporting, and providing insights that inform both operational and investment strategies.

RESPONSIBILITIES:

• Deliver deep fundamental and technical market analysis to support front office decision-making. Focus areas include product flows, market intelligence, pricing dynamics, freight modelling, asset performance, sales optimization and feedstock selection.
• Build, enhance and maintain financial, market and operational models that inform decisions from daily operations to long-term investments and acquisitions. Continuously improve methodologies and leverage analytical platforms (Excel, R, SQL) to strengthen business insights and maintain internal dashboards.

Financial Planning & Forecasting:

• Develop forward-looking models for EBITDA, gross refining margin (GRM), cash flows, and P&L projections.
• Support major financing events including bond issuances, inventory refining, factoring facilities and dividend distributions.
• Prepare pro-forma financial statements and scenario analyses, for investment and strategic decision-making.

Risk & Performance Analysis:

• Provide statistical and structural analysis using forward derivative markets to support P&L forecasting, hedging performance evaluation, and risk management.
• Conduct margin and FX risk assessments, liquidity and covenant forecasting, and working capital optimization.
• Partner with Refinery Planning, Economics & Scheduling, Finance, Risk, M&A and Corporate Finance teams to deliver quantitative insights that guide strategic initiatives, acquisitions, and operational excellence.
• Deliver in-depth economic and financial analysis of refinery-related projects and strategic initiatives under management review. Prepare detailed financial and performance reports to support executive decision-making.

COMMERCIAL AND TECHNICAL SKILLS REQUIRED:

• Degree in Finance, Economics, Mathematics, Engineering or a related quantitative field.
• Experience in building and maintaining complex models using tools such as Excel, R and SQL.
• Hands-on involvement in delivering complex, multi-disciplinary modelling projects, including the development of neural network models.
• Practical application of AI/ML techniques in industrial process optimization and predictive analytics.
• Demonstrated ability to take on divers roles across the lifecycle of complex modelling initiatives including:Product ownership – defining vision, roadmap and stakeholder alignment,Project management – planning, coordination and execution of modelling initiatives,Requirements analysis and specification – gathering business needs and translating them into technical requirements,Solution design – architecting robust analytical frameworks and methodologies,Model generation – coding, testing and validating statistical or machine learning models,User acceptance testing – managing end-user testing and feedback integration, and On-going support and maintenance – ensuring reliability, scalability and continuous improvement of models in production.
• Strong analytical mindset and attention to detail.
• Comfortable with financial, trade and management reporting analysis, with proven business acumen.
• Solid foundation in statistical analysis and accounting principles.
• Strong verbal and written communication skills, capable of conveying complex concepts to all levels in the organization.
• Confident in influencing stakeholders and building cross-functional consensus.
• Excellent presentation capabilities, both in content development and delivery.
• Fluency in English required.
• Adaptable and effective in fast-paced environments; able to prioritise and resolve issues independently.
• Self-motivated and performance driven, with leadership ambition.
• Comfortable moving from strategic concept development to hands-on execution.
• Collaborative team player with excellent interpersonal and relationship building skills.